Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 23.092142 25.109178 27.280951 29.803254 32.664777 35.825261 39.600635
2026-02-08 19.844427 22.589746 25.746167 29.683007 34.517798 40.337087 47.989684
2026-02-15 17.520570 20.666377 24.475664 29.512589 36.130713 44.730258 57.105452
2026-02-22 15.771391 19.141340 23.397846 29.308653 37.543506 49.008389 66.974870
2026-03-01 14.470423 17.987371 22.591459 29.263413 39.059766 53.601175 78.356337
2026-03-08 13.424919 17.030303 21.897545 29.219854 40.492054 58.252614 91.024040
2026-03-15 12.852715 16.635493 21.901560 30.132186 43.445617 65.818834 111.038205
2026-03-22 12.019091 15.789367 21.159663 29.800094 44.324297 70.024686 126.082679
2026-03-29 11.374072 15.151264 20.648911 29.743235 45.615392 75.192719 145.055463
2026-04-05 10.886117 14.697630 20.363216 29.996138 47.456925 81.786319 170.169258
2026-04-12 10.352663 14.133158 19.851571 29.801233 48.430084 86.821625 193.788782
2026-04-19 9.886550 13.636215 19.401043 29.652238 49.451535 92.186756 221.291603
2026-04-26 9.468134 13.196389 19.024578 29.624813 50.779282 98.776189 257.640359
2026-05-03 9.063589 12.753475 18.610374 29.487789 51.874919 105.176885 298.697521
2026-05-10 8.686707 12.331083 18.198187 29.310132 52.860953 111.632714 346.207728
2026-05-17 8.336995 11.931185 17.794021 29.103795 53.752718 118.148489 401.344885
2026-05-24 8.042472 11.603479 17.489293 29.056827 55.001979 126.134970 474.526692
2026-05-31 7.771396 11.298609 17.201933 29.012617 56.252519 134.610176 564.509769
2026-06-07 7.662424 11.255992 17.373303 29.915278 59.990340 152.690149 759.008753
2026-06-14 7.383035 10.910422 16.974378 29.586245 60.537070 160.051887 890.903971
2026-06-21 7.160529 10.650637 16.715405 29.529818 61.801593 170.696989 1091.975122
2026-06-28 6.993012 10.476726 16.603321 29.780108 63.956502 185.979895 1421.378525
2026-07-05 6.779366 10.212231 16.304599 29.587130 64.834851 196.476404 1753.919194